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New method projects very likely range of future sea-level rise
Singapore | NTU – An interdisciplinary team of researchers from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore), and Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), The Netherlands, has projected that if the rate of global CO2 emissions continues to increase and reaches a high emission scenario, sea levels would as a result very likely rise between 0.5 and 1.9 metres by 2100.
The high end of this projection’s range is 90 centimetres higher than the latest United Nations’ global projection of 0.6 to 1.0 metres (1).
The ‘very likely’ range (90 per cent probability for the event to occur), reported by the NTU team in the scientific journal Earth’s Future, complements sea-level rise projections reported by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which only assessed the probability of projections up to a likely range (66 per cent probability).
Current sea-level projections rely on a range of methods to model climate processes. Some include well-understood phenomena like glacier melting, while others incorporate more uncertain events, such as abrupt ice shelf collapse.
As a result, these models produce varying projections, making it difficult to estimate reliable extreme sea-level rise. This ambiguity in projections from different methods has prevented the IPCC from providing very likely ranges for sea-level projections – a valuable standard in managing risk.
To overcome this challenge and to address the uncertainties in current sea-level rise projections, NTU researchers developed a new, improved projection method known as the ‘fusion’ approach. This approach combines the strengths of existing models with expert opinions, offering a clearer, more reliable picture of future sea-level rise.
Lead author of the study, Dr Benjamin Grandey, Senior Research Fellow at NTU’s School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences (SPMS), said: “Our new approach tackles a key issue in sea-level science: different methods of projecting sea-level rise often produce widely varying results. By combining these different approaches into a single fusion projection, we can estimate the uncertainty associated with future sea-level rise and quantify the very likely range of sea-level rise.”
The research team believes their new method fills a critical gap for reliable information, complementing the IPCC’s latest report.
The fusion approach: Combining strengths of existing models
The interdisciplinary NTU team of physicists and climate scientists created the fusion model by integrating statistical methods with expert judgments. They used data from established projections presented in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, which simulate potential future scenarios under different emissions pathways.
The researchers combined different classes of projections reported in the IPCC report. They incorporated both ‘medium confidence’ and ‘low confidence’ projections, supplemented by expert assessments, to account for poorly understood extreme processes, such as sudden shifts in ice sheet behaviour. A weighting system was applied, prioritising more reliable medium-confidence data while still including lower-confidence projections to address uncertainties.
Projections based on this fusion approach suggest that under a low-emissions scenario, global mean sea levels are very likely to rise between 0.3 and 1.0 metres by 2100. The IPCC’s likely range projected global mean sea level to rise by 0.3 to 0.6 metres.
Under a high-emissions scenario, the NTU fusion model projects global mean sea level will very likely rise between 0.5 and 1.9 metres by 2100. The IPCC likely range projected a rise between 0.6 to 1.0 metres.
The broader ranges indicated by the NTU model suggest that previous estimates may have understated the potential for extreme outcomes, with levels possibly rising to 90 cm higher than the upper end of the IPCC’s likely range under a high-emissions pathway.
Current emissions trends suggest that the world is on a trajectory between the low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios.
“Our new very likely projections highlight just how large the uncertainties are when it comes to sea-level rise,” said Dr Grandey. “The high-end projection of 1.9 metres underscores the need for decision-makers to plan for critical infrastructure accordingly. More importantly, these results emphasise the importance of climate mitigation through reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”
Co-author, Professor Benjamin Horton, Director, Earth Observatory of Singapore at NTU, explained: “This NTU research represents a significant breakthrough in sea-level science. By estimating the probability of the most extreme outcomes, it underscores the severe impacts of sea-level rise on coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems, emphasising the urgent need to address the climate crisis.”
Why the new projection method matters
Accurate projections of sea-level rise are essential for preparing for climate change. The NTU team believes that their new method provides valuable, actionable information for urban planners and governments, helping them plan and implement measures to protect vulnerable communities, especially in extreme sea-level rise scenarios.
Co-author, Professor Chew Lock Yue from NTU School of SPMS, said: “By appropriately combining the best available knowledge of sea-level information at different confidence levels into a single fused probability distribution, we have developed a novel way to project the full uncertainty range of future sea-level rise.”
Co-author, Associate Professor Justin Dauwels, Signal Processing Systems (SPS), Department of Microelectronics at TU Delft, added: “Our new method for projecting the full uncertainty range of future sea-level rise can also be applied for other climate projections and beyond, including coastal flooding risk assessments, infrastructure vulnerability analysis, and economic impact forecasts.”
This study exemplifies NTU’s commitment to advancing climate science research and supporting global sustainability efforts and is supported by the National Research Foundation, Singapore, and National Environment Agency, Singapore under the National Sea Level Programme Funding Initiative (Award No. USS-IF-2020-3).
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Note: (1) Projection based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. The IPCC is a United Nations body that provides authoritative scientific assessments on climate change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-9/
Journal Reference:
Grandey, B. S., Dauwels, J., Koh, Z. Y., Horton, B. P., & Chew, L. Y., ‘Fusion of probabilistic projections of sea-level rise’, Earth’s Future 12, e2024EF005295 (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005295
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by Nanyang Technological University (NTU)
Unraveling the connection between Canadian wildfires and arctic ice clouds
Japan | ROIS – Clouds, composed of tiny water droplets or ice crystals, play a vital role in regulating Earth’s climate by influencing the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface. The cloud phase significantly impacts the surface energy balance as liquid water clouds reflect more radiation than ice clouds.
Ice clouds typically form at temperatures below −38°C, but recent observations indicate their formation at higher temperatures in the Arctic. This phenomenon is facilitated by ice-nucleating particles (INPs), including mineral dust, organic aerosols and bioaerosols, which promote ice cloud formation above the usual freezing point.
These INPs, primarily sourced from outsude of the Arctic refion, also include traces of organic carbon (OC) aerosols. Wildfires in Canada, Alaska, and Russia are major sources of these aerosols, contributing to higher concentrations of OC, black carbon, and other aerosols over the Arctic. However, despite extensive scientific evidence of aerosol transport from lower latitudes, a clear link between the transported aerosols and ice cloud formation in the Arctic remains unestablished.
In a recent study led by Assistant Professor Kazutoshi Sato and involving Professor Jun Inoue from the National Institute of Polar Research, Japan, scientists set out to understand how wildfire aerosols influence ice cloud formation in the Arctic.
The study is set to be published in Volume 315 of Atmospheric Research on April 1, 2025.
The field data used in the study was gathered in September 2023 during an expedition to the Chukchi and Beaufort seas in the Arctic region aboard RV Mirai, a Japanese research vessel. The team used various instruments, including cloud particle sensor (CPS) sondes and drones, to measure particle counts and cloud properties.
Additionally, atmospheric modeling tools, such as a backward trajectory model, were used to track the movement of aerosols and identify their source regions.
Dr. Sato elaborates: “In the lower troposphere, our drone-based particle counter recorded particle counts two orders of magnitude higher than the voyage average. Using the CPS sonde, we detected ice clouds in the mid-troposphere under temperatures warmer than −15 °C, near a stream of warm and moist air coming from mid-latitudes. These streams are often referred to as an atmospheric river (AR). Our observations suggest that these wildfire aerosols, which have traveled via the AR, contribute to ice cloud formation under relatively warm conditions.”
Using the backward trajectory analysis, the team found that OC aerosol masses originating from wildfires in Canada traveled to the Arctic, where they contributed to ice cloud formation at temperatures warmer than usual. They traced the AR coming from the wildfire zones and found that it passed over areas with high concentrations of OC aerosols.
“The AR event is a very important event for moisture transport from mid-latitudes to the polar region, and this study also shows that aerosols can be transported by this system as well,” says Prof. Inoue.
This study underscores the critical need for field-derived vertical atmospheric profiles, including the monitoring of aerosol number concentrations and their chemical composition, in developing more precise numerical modeling of the polar regions.
By establishing a clear link between wildfire-emitted aerosols and ice cloud formation, this research paves the way for future endeavors that will refine how aerosol transport is represented in Arctic climate models.
Journal Reference:
Kazutoshi Sato, Kazu Takahashi, Jun Inoue, ‘Impact of Canadian wildfires on aerosol and ice clouds in the early-autumn Arctic‘, Atmospheric Research 315, 107893 (2025). DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107893
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS)
Trimetallic synergy and defects: a catalyst for climate action
The Discovery
The study introduces a trimetallic catalyst — comprising nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), and zinc (Zn) nanoparticles supported on defective ceria (CeO2) — that achieves unprecedented performance in CO2 reduction. The catalyst demonstrated:
- CO Productivity: An astounding 49,279 mmol g-1 h-1 at 650°C, a nine-fold increase over previously reported catalysts.
- CO Selectivity: Up to 99%.
- Stability: Maintained performance for at least 100 hours without degradation.
The catalyst’s extraordinary efficiency is attributed to the creation of a Strong Metal-Support Interaction (SMSI) between the trimetallic sites and the defective ceria. This unique interaction fine-tunes the electronic structure, enabling optimal performance.
Unveiling the Mechanism
This research relied heavily on advanced in-situ techniques and a multidisciplinary collaboration:
- In-Situ HERFD-XANES at ESRF, France
- Dr. Pieter Glatzel and the team at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF), Grenoble, played a pivotal role in uncovering the electronic dynamics of the system. High-energy-resolution fluorescence-detection X-ray absorption spectroscopy (HERFD-XAS) revealed how SMSI alters oxidation states and electron density distribution across the catalyst.
- In-Situ TEM and EELS at Ernst-Ruska Center, Germany
- Dr. Paul Paciok from the Ernst-Ruska Center, Germany, contributed critical insights through in-situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS). These studies visualized, for the first time, the growth and movement of trimetallic sites under catalytic conditions. Once SMSI was established, the movement ceased, preventing further diffusion or sintering.
- Molecular Understanding via DFT at IIT Bombay, India
- Prof. Ojus Mohan‘s group at IIT Bombay utilized density functional theory (DFT) calculations to unravel the reaction mechanism. The studies highlighted how reaction intermediates form and convert into products, driven by a complex interplay of direct dissociation and redox pathways on different active sites.
Why It Matters
The conversion of CO2 to CO is a critical step in transforming carbon dioxide into value-added chemicals and fuels. However, commercial viability has been hindered by low productivity, poor selectivity, and instability of existing catalysts. By leveraging SMSI and defect engineering, this study has overcome these barriers, setting new benchmarks in CO2 reduction catalysis.
This research not only provides a highly effective catalyst for CO2 conversion but also offers a blueprint for designing next-generation catalysts through precise electronic structure tuning and defect manipulation.
Future Implications
These findings open new avenues for the development of advanced catalysts for CO2 utilization and other critical chemical transformations.
As Prof. Polshettiwar states: “By combining traditional catalytic materials with cutting-edge defect engineering and SMSI, we’ve shown how to address fundamental limitations in catalysis. The study offers a roadmap for designing advanced catalysts and demonstrates the impact of integrating traditional materials with cutting-edge approaches, offering hope for a sustainable future.”
Journal Reference:
C. Singhvi, G. Sharma, R. Verma, V.K. Paidi, P. Glatzel, P. Paciok, V.B. Patel, O. Mohan, V. Polshettiwar, ‘Tuning the electronic structure and SMSI by integrating trimetallic sites with defective ceria for the CO2 reduction reaction’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122 (3) e2411406122 (2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2411406122
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR)
Featured image credit: Gerd Altmann | Pixabay
