Brief scientific literacy interventions may quash new conspiracy theories
UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa | Penn State – The more time you spend on social media, the likelier you are to have come across a viral post that seems too strange to be true. Brief scientific literacy interventions, especially those that focus on critical thinking skills, may help to undermine conspiracy beliefs and behaviors before the conspiracy theories have a chance to take root, according to a team led by Penn State researchers.
The team published their findings in the Journal of Consumer Research.
“While some conspiracy beliefs may seem relatively harmless, others – about vaccines, genetically modified organisms and climate change, for example – pose risks to consumers and society,” said study co-author Lisa Bolton, professor of marketing and the Anchel Professor of Business Administration at Penn State’s Smeal College of Business.
The researchers conducted two studies in which they used national and international data to establish the connection between scientific literacy and conspiracy belief levels.
They also conducted a series of eight science literacy studies, which included more than 2,700 participants in total, to determine how conspiracy beliefs can impact consumer actions and the effectiveness of scientific literacy to counteract such beliefs.
They found that conspiracy beliefs – such as the ideas that agribusiness and big pharma are covering up the risks of genetically modified foods and vaccines, respectively – could affect what consumers choose to purchase or which medical procedures they decide to undergo.
They also found that brief interventions, like short videos focused on scientific knowledge and reasoning, undermined the conspiracy beliefs. The interventions were most effective against conspiracy theories built on faulty reasoning rather than narrative and against novel rather than entrenched conspiracies, even among high-conspiracy groups, according to the researchers.
The work suggests that educational interventions focused on expanding scientific knowledge and evidence evaluation skills can mitigate conspiracy beliefs, the researchers said.
“We need to get these interventions in front of people when they are facing important decisions. You can’t rely on someone remembering a 3-minute video a year after they watch it, but a video in the waiting room of a doctor’s office might be just in time,” said Nathan Allred, first author and assistant professor of marketing at Texas Tech University. Allred completed the work as part of his doctoral dissertation at Penn State.
In their initial studies, Allred and Bolton examined the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and scientific knowledge and reasoning.
For instance, in one study they asked 299 participants to watch a 3-minute video – either explaining correlation and causation or on a completely unrelated topic – then read an article on a conspiracy theory about lab-grown meat. Then participants responded to prompts that measured their conspiracy beliefs, including being given one dollar and asked how much they would like to donate to a real charity that advocates for lab-grown meat to see how their conspiracy beliefs affected their behavior.
In these studies, the researchers found that participants were less likely to demonstrate behaviors indicating belief in the conspiracy after short scientific literacy interventions, especially ones that helped participants improve their evidence evaluation skills. These skills are especially helpful since they are applicable to most topic areas instead of being specific to one domain, the researchers said.
The latter studies looked at real-world assessments of how scientific literacy impacts conspiracy beliefs and behaviors. For example, in one study, the researchers wanted to see how COVID-19 conspiracy theories affected vaccination rates. They used science scores from the 2015 National Assessment of Educational Progress – the most recent scores available – as a proxy to measure scientific literacy in the 44 states that participated in the assessment.
Then the researchers looked at responses to an American News Pathways 2020 Project assessment from June 10, 2020, that asked participants to state how strongly they agree or disagree with the statement “that powerful people intentionally planned the coronavirus outbreak.” They measured vaccination rates and the percentage of fully vaccinated adults per 100,000 people in these areas. The data spanned from April 15 to July 30, 2021.
They found that Americans in states with higher scientific literacy scores were less likely to believe in conspiracies and had higher COVID-19 vaccination uptake rates over the time period.
“Public health messaging during the COVID-19 pandemic was fairly messy,” Allred said. “From what we learned from our intervention studies, I believe a greater emphasis on explaining the science behind how we knew what was happening and what we should be doing about it would have curbed the spread of conspiracy theories.”
Journal Reference:
Nathan Allred, Lisa E Bolton, ‘Conspiracy Beliefs and Consumption: The Role of Scientific Literacy’, Journal of Consumer Research 51, 4 (2024). DOI: 10.1093/jcr/ucae024
Article Source: Press Release/Material | Penn State
Digital Twins of the Earth is a misleading term as computer models are always a simplified representation of reality
Researchers are critical of the very term, stressing the discrepancy between scientific models and reality. New computer models require new methods for appropriate data analysis and interpretation.
Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz – The term Digital Twin of the Earth creates the idea of the availability of a highly accurate virtual copy of our planet, enabling researchers to predict the most complex future climate developments and extreme natural events. In fact, such a replica – or model representation of the Earth systems – is the goal of the Destination Earth project, funded by the European Union.
This flagship initiative was launched in 2022 as a key pillar of the European Commission’s efforts towards the Green Deal – not without attracting criticism.
“We have seen various highly critical papers and reports on the subject recently, and we are joining this discussion,” said Professor Robert Reinecke of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU).
In an article published in Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, Reinecke and his co-authors point out the lack of a clear definition of the term “Digital Twin of the Earth”, which may be misleading.
“All digital representations of our planet are model representations. As such, they will always be detached from reality – as a map can never fully replicate the land it depicts,” said Reinecke.
Being an expert in the field of Earth system modeling, the Mainz-based geoscientist values the new detailed simulation models as tools to interrogate and assess theories about the world in ways not possible otherwise. At the same time, however, new methods and methodology are required to ensure that these models are appropriately used and interpreted.
EU initiative Destination Earth to help climate change adaptation
Destination Earth (DestinE) is a flagship initiative of the European Commission, aiming to develop a highly accurate digital model of the Earth – a digital twin of our planet. It is based on Europe’s High-performance computers (EuroHPC), including the LUMI supercomputer in Finland, as well as on Artificial Intelligence capacities.
DestinE is now creating several digital replicas covering various aspects of the Earth system. By 2030, a full digital replica of the Earth should be available, which would then contribute to more accurate monitoring and predicting of the effects of climate change and natural disasters and support the design of adaptation strategies and mitigation measures.
The Digital Twin concept has found its way into other fields as well: the German Federal Agency for Carthography and Geodesy is currently working on a digital, intelligent 3D image of Germany and the German federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate is running a digital “hydro-twin” project.
Misleading term for impossible representation of reality / Understanding the differences between the world and scientific modeling
Professor Robert Reinecke and his two co-authors, Professor Francesca Pianosi of the University of Bristol in the UK and Alexander von Humboldt Professor Thorsten Wagener of the University of Potsdam, consider the term Digital Twin of the Earth problematic and inappropriate because “it suggests that we can create a digital representation that allows us to stress-test the structural properties of the Earth system with any desired degree of accuracy and precision,” as they pointed out in their paper in Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling.
That is not the case, however, “as every model is a simplification of reality, and its creation requires simplifying assumptions that will unavoidably lead to uncertainties,” the researchers continued. “We thus recommend refraining from using the term Digital Twin of the Earth,” said Reinecke.
Investing in methods to ensure appropriate use of models and data
Reinecke and his team at the JGU Institute of Geography work with models that encompass the whole planet, and he understands the motivation of the EU initiative. Simulation models are excellent digital laboratories that allow researchers to interrogate and check their assumptions about the world in ways otherwise not possible in real-world experiments.
According to Reinecke, however, the creation of new models with higher resolutions will not necessarily lead to an improvement in knowledge and results. Moreover, new complex models need new methodologies that will enable researchers to apply them. Simulation models usually need to be run over and over again, thousands to millions of runs, in order to understand how a model works and what factors play a role – whether, for instance, certain input data has a particular effect on the model results. “We need to invest in new methodologies and methods that will ensure that we use them appropriately. We have sketched out preliminary ideas already and my team and I will continue to work on this in future.”
Finally, Reinecke and his co-authors state the question whether a Digital Twin of the Earth itself could represent a risk in that the “reductionist view of nature as a machine” may lead to the erosion of democratic principles “as they may end up being used as political instruments for justification and control.”
In this connection, the authors cite the cautionary tale of the map maker who is commissioned to create the perfect map. As they state in their contribution to Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling: “Such a map is as impossible as a perfect digital representation of reality. Scientists and decision-makers alike should not fall for this fallacy.”
Journal Reference:
Reinecke, R., Pianosi, F., & Wagener, T., ‘How to use the impossible map – Considerations for a rigorous exploration of Digital Twins of the Earth’, Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling 6, 18786 (2024). DOI: 10.18174/sesmo.18786
Article Source: Press Release/Material | Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz
Climate change could bring more severe bacterial infections, including in corals
Could the fungal apocalypse of The Last of Us have roots in reality?
Alex Walls | University of British Columbia – A new UBC study shows that climate warming can potentially make bacterial and fungal infections deadlier for cold-blooded animals like corals, insects, and fish, raising questions about the broader risks warming temperatures pose to ecosystems and biodiversity – and potentially humans.
Cold-blooded in a warming world
Drs. Kayla King and Jingdi (Judy) Li synthesized 60 experimental studies on cold-blooded animals with bacterial, fungal and other infections, noting that cold-blooded animals are directly dependent upon temperature and so, could be particularly sensitive to the effects of global warming.
The studies covered 50 species including land insects, fish, molluscs and corals – some of the most biodiverse and most at-risk ecosystems on the planet.
Using statistical models, the researchers found that cold-blooded animals with bacterial infections were more likely to die when exposed to higher temperatures compared to their usual environmental conditions.
Fungal sweet spots
The analysis showed that animals infected by fungal pathogens felt the impact of warming within a specific temperature range. They did not die more frequently as temperatures rose – unless the temperature rose towards fungi’s ideal range, known as the “thermal optimum.” At this point, infected animals were more likely to die. However, when temperatures became too high for the fungi to survive, death rates in infected animals decreased.
What does this mean?
“These findings suggest that climate warming may pose a greater risk to cold-blooded animals, an important part of the ecosystem,” said Dr. Li. She added that more research is needed on how rising temperatures impact warm-blooded animals, including humans.
Dr. King noted that the results offer insights to help forecast the risks to animal populations in a warming, disease-prone world.
Journal Reference:
Li J, Guttmann N, Drew GC, Hector TE, Wolinska J, King KC, ‘Excess mortality of infected ectotherms induced by warming depends on pathogen kingdom and evolutionary history’, PLoS Biology 22 (11): e3002900 (2024). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3002900
Article Source: Press Release/Material | University of British Columbia (UBC)
Featured image credit: Gerd Altmann | Pixabay
