Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached a new record in 2024, highlighting the persistent challenge in addressing climate change, according to the Global Carbon Project‘s latest report.
Released today, the 2024 Global Carbon Budget projects fossil CO2 emissions to reach 37.4 billion tonnes, a 0.8% increase from 2023. Combined with emissions from land-use changes, total global CO2 emissions are expected to hit 41.6 billion tonnes this year, underscoring the enduring global dependence on fossil fuels and continued deforestation pressures.
Despite growing international commitments to reduce emissions, researchers observe “no sign” that fossil CO2 emissions have peaked. Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study, emphasized the narrowing window to meet international climate targets: “Time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goals – and world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give us a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels.”
The study, published in Earth System Science Data, also points to a concerning trend in land-use emissions, set to rise due to droughts and forest degradation exacerbated by the 2023-2024 El Niño event. Deforestation and related fires have surged, particularly in regions like Brazil, fueling additional CO2 emissions and straining ecosystems already under climate stress. Combined fossil and land-use emissions have been relatively stable over the last decade, but 2024 marks a significant increase, driven in part by El Niño impacts.
Professor Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia acknowledged some progress but underscored the need for more systemic change: “Despite another rise in global emissions this year, the latest data shows evidence of widespread climate action, with the growing penetration of renewables and electric cars displacing fossil fuels, and decreasing deforestation emissions in the past decades confirmed for the first time.”
Emissions trends by country and sector
The report identifies varied progress among the world’s largest emitters:
- China: Responsible for 32% of global emissions, China’s emissions are expected to see a slight increase of 0.2% in 2024, though this projection includes a potential decrease.
- United States: Emissions (13% of the global total) are set to decrease by 0.6%, reflecting continued decarbonization efforts and growth in renewables.
- India: Emissions (8% of the global total) are projected to rise by 4.6%, marking one of the highest increases among major economies.
- European Union: (7% of the global total) Expected to decrease emissions by 3.8% as a result of ongoing climate policies and a strong push for renewable energy sources.
- International Aviation and Shipping: (3% of the global total, and counted separately from national/regional totals) Projected to rise by 7.8% in 2024, these sectors are rebounding post-pandemic but remain below 2019 levels.
Fossil fuels remain the primary sources of global CO2 emissions, with coal, oil, and gas projected to contribute 41%, 32%, and 21%, respectively.
Dr. Glen Peters from Oslo’s CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo pointed to an imminent, yet elusive, global emissions peak. “There are many signs of positive progress at the country level, and a feeling that a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive,” he said.
The impact of El Niño and carbon sinks
The El Niño climate pattern has also impacted carbon absorption by terrestrial ecosystems, weakening the land carbon sink capacity and contributing to the atmospheric CO2 rise.
Carbon dioxide removal through reforestation and afforestation has offset about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation, though technology-based CO2 removal remains limited, offsetting only a fraction of fossil fuel emissions.
Atmospheric CO2 levels are projected to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, a rise of 2.8 ppm from 2023. This level marks a 52% increase above pre-industrial levels, reinforcing concerns about accelerated warming and climate-related impacts, from extreme weather events to biodiversity loss.
The study also warns of an approaching threshold for global warming. According to the Global Carbon Budget team’s latest estimates, the world has only around six years at current emission rates before the 1.5°C warming threshold is exceeded on a continuous basis. This threshold, associated with increased risks of severe climate impacts, reflects the urgent need to curtail emissions beyond national borders.
As world leaders convene at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the Global Carbon Budget report reinforces the necessity for decisive action. “Until we reach net zero CO2 emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts,” said Professor Friedlingstein. In addition to a UN press conference, the official launch of the report at COP29 will highlight key findings and call for intensified efforts to reduce emissions in line with the Paris Agreement.
With over 120 scientists from institutions including the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia, and CICERO, this report is the 19th edition of the Global Carbon Budget, providing annual updates on CO2 emissions and projections. The findings stress that, while advances in renewable energy, electrification, and deforestation reduction have been made, rapid and coordinated global action is essential to steer emissions onto a downward path and avert the most severe consequences of climate change.
Journal Reference:
Friedlingstein, P., O’Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., Le Quéré, C., Li, H., Luijkx, I. T., Olsen, A., et al. Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data (preprint), in review, (2024). DOI: 10.5194/essd-2024-519
The data presented in this work are available at DOI: 10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by University of Exeter
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