China’s relaxation of family size restrictions may complicate its ambitious goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, according to new research from University College London (UCL).
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, is the first to explore how changes in fertility policies impact a nation’s future carbon emissions.
Researchers from UCL estimated the carbon footprint of China’s population under three scenarios: the former two-child policy, the current three-child policy, and a hypothetical replacement-level birth rate of 2.1 children per woman. They found that more relaxed fertility policies would lead to a larger population and, consequently, higher carbon emissions. This growth in emissions could hinder China’s ability to meet its 2060 carbon neutrality target.
Professor Zhifu Mi from UCL’s Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, the study’s lead author, highlighted the importance of these findings. “China is one of the most populous countries and one of the largest carbon emitters in the world. Capturing the impacts of fertility policies on the country’s future population and carbon emissions is crucial for its sustainable development,” he stated.
China’s original one-child policy, introduced in 1979 to ease the strain on resources, successfully limited population growth. However, it also accelerated the country’s demographic aging, with fewer young people to offset the growing elderly population. This policy was replaced by a two-child limit in 2015, and in 2021, the government allowed families to have up to three children to counterbalance the aging demographic.
Despite the change, China’s fertility rate remains low at 1.3 births per woman – well below the replacement level required to maintain the current population size of around 1.4 billion.
The country’s population, which shrank by 850,000 in 2022 for the first time in decades, is projected to continue its decline, even under the three-child policy. The study estimates that the population will drop to approximately 1.3 billion by 2060 with the three-child policy, and to around 1.15 billion under the previous two-child policy.
However, if China were to achieve a replacement-level birth rate, the population would stabilize around 1.39 billion. But this stabilization comes with a caveat – the percentage of elderly citizens (over 65) would still grow significantly, reaching 35% to 42% by 2060, depending on the fertility scenario.
The study also analyzed the effects of these population changes on China’s carbon emissions. While China currently produces more carbon than any other nation, its per capita carbon footprint is lower than that of many developed countries. The average Chinese citizen generates about 2.34 tonnes of CO2 per year, a figure comparable to Mexico, and significantly lower than that of the U.S. or the U.K.
However, carbon emissions vary widely across demographics and regions. Younger Chinese tend to have higher household carbon footprints due to greater wealth and consumption, producing up to three times more CO2 than older generations. Additionally, more industrialized regions, such as the northwest and eastern provinces, have higher per capita emissions.
The researchers found that the growing wealth and consumption of younger generations, coupled with relaxed family policies, could drive up China’s carbon footprint. This trend could reverse recent emission reductions and make it more difficult for the country to meet its carbon neutrality goals.
The paper also touched on China’s plan to gradually raise the retirement age, announced in September 2024. While delaying retirement may slightly increase the carbon footprint, it could alleviate pressures caused by the aging population by reducing dependency ratios, the researchers noted.
Professor Mi emphasized the importance of policy adjustments to curb carbon emissions. “It is our hope that this better understanding about the future of the carbon footprint of China’s population can help to inform policies that encourage young people to live more sustainable lifestyles, such as by reducing consumption, using public transport, and purchasing long-lasting goods.”
Journal Reference:
Mi Z., Tang, L., Yang, J., Zheng, J. et al. ‘Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age increase China’s carbon emissions’, Nature Climate Change (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02145-5
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by University College London (UCL)
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