New research reveals significant challenges in scaling up carbon storage technologies necessary to limit global warming.
A recent study led by Imperial College London has uncovered critical limitations in the global effort to store carbon dioxide (CO2) underground, casting doubt on the feasibility of meeting ambitious climate targets through carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.
Published in Nature Communications, the study suggests that while it is technically possible to store substantial amounts of CO2 underground, the current pace of development may not be sufficient to achieve global climate goals.
Uncertain Projections
Current international climate scenarios, which aim to limit global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, rely heavily on the deployment of CCS technologies. These scenarios suggest the need to remove CO2 from the atmosphere at a rate of 1-30 gigatonnes per year by 2050. However, these estimates have been largely speculative, and the new findings indicate that the actual capacity for scaling up these technologies may be far more constrained.
The study, conducted by researchers from Imperial’s Department of Earth Science and Engineering, found that while it might be possible to store up to 16 gigatonnes of CO2 annually by 2050, achieving this would require an unprecedented increase in storage capacity and technological development. Given the current rate of investment and deployment, such a rapid scale-up appears unlikely.
Realistic Goals
The research team developed models to estimate how quickly carbon storage systems could be developed, taking into account geological suitability, technical feasibility, and economic limitations. Their findings suggest that while CCS could play a significant role in reducing CO2 emissions, the path to achieving this is likely to differ from current projections, including those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Lead author Yuting Zhang emphasized the complexity of these projections, stating, “There are many factors at play (…) Our models will help us understand how uncertainty in storage capacity, variations in institutional capacity across regions, and limitations to development might affect climate plans and targets set by policymakers.”
Challenges in Scaling Up
One of the key insights from the study is the discrepancy between the optimistic projections found in many climate models and the realities of scaling up CCS technologies. Co-author Dr. Samuel Krevor pointed out that while storing between 6 and 16 gigatonnes of CO2 annually is technically possible, the higher end of this range is fraught with uncertainty due to the lack of existing plans or international agreements to support such large-scale efforts.
Krevor also noted, “five gigatonnes of carbon going into the ground is still a major contribution to climate change mitigation. Our models provide the tools to update current projections with realistic goals for how and where carbon storage should be developed in the next few decades.”
Revising Global Benchmarks
The analysis further highlights that some of the assumptions made in IPCC reports, particularly regarding Asian countries like China, Indonesia, and South Korea, are overly optimistic. These countries currently have low levels of CCS development, making the high deployment rates projected in some models unlikely to materialize.
Co-author Professor Christopher Jackson stressed the importance of revising these benchmarks, stating, “While integrated assessment models play an important role in helping climate policymakers make decisions, some of the assumptions they make when it comes to storing large amounts of carbon underground appear unrealistic.”
The researchers propose a more realistic global benchmark of 5-6 gigatonnes of CO2 storage per year by 2050. This estimate is based on observed growth patterns in industries such as mining and renewable energy, providing a more grounded approach to predicting how quickly CCS technologies can be scaled up.
A Tool for Policymakers
This study, funded by the Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the Royal Academy of Engineering, is the first to apply growth patterns from established industries to CO2 storage. By using historical data and trends, the researchers have developed a model that offers a more practical approach for setting attainable targets for carbon storage.
“Our new model offers a more realistic and practical approach for predicting how quickly carbon storage can be scaled up – helping us set more attainable targets,” said Dr. Krevor.
As the UK Government and other nations seek to position themselves as leaders in clean energy, this research underscores the need for aligning ambitious climate initiatives with realistic objectives, ensuring that efforts to combat climate change are both effective and feasible.
Journal Reference:
Zhang, Y., Jackson, C. & Krevor, S., ‘The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century’, Nature Communications 15, 6913 (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51226-8
Article Source:
Press Release/Material by Imperial College London
Featured image: Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) – the world’s largest and most flexible plant for testing and improving technologies for CO2 capture Credit: Technology Centre Mongstad
